Writing
Perspectives on Macro Investing, Quantitative Investing, Crypto and AI.
2025 年 12 月 17 日，Coinbase 举办了 “System Update 2025”。表面看，它像是一场把新品堆满舞台的发布会；但更准确的说法是——这是一份“战略重估说明书”。Coinbase 借这次更新公开宣称：自己不满足于做一家加密交易所，而要升级为覆盖 股票、预测市场、衍生品、DEX 长尾资产、一级 Token Sales、Bas...
The Conclusion. There are only two honest theses left for this market: The Leveraged Index or The Public Hedge Fund. Which one should you actually buy?
When $1.00 of assets trades for $0.70, it’s not an investment; it’s a takeover target. The two logics of M&A and why the mushy middle is being vaporized.
We built the Rube Goldberg machine. Now we find the single point of failure: The Restaking Cascade, the Premium Amplifier, and the forced-seller death spiral.
ETFs killed the simple HODL. Now, "ability" means re-hypothecating your crypto twelve times over—introducing 100x the risk for a 2% net yield.
We ran the numbers. Now let’s talk about the egos, the governance nightmares, and why you’re paying a 1.5x premium for a management team that might be losing money.
Why paying a 100% premium for Bitcoin might actually be the cheap part of the trade.
Why are 200+ public companies trading at 2x the value of the crypto they hold?